Dow futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Major indexes fell strongly in the past week, capping a terrible September. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones are at bear market lows, with the Nasdaq on the verge of doing so. Treasury yields slipped from 4%, but extended their weekly winning streak.
Investors should be very cautious in the current environment, as the bear market appears to be beginning its third slump.
Tesla AI Day: Optimus Robot Isn’t Chief Yet
Tesla (TSLA) in focus over the weekend. On Friday night, Tesla revealed a prototype of its Optimus robot, showing the movement of limbs and hands that it can grab. But it’s unable to walk yet, which indicates that the Tesla Optimus is many years behind what other robotics companies can do. Tesla spent some time discussing Optimus mechanics and software.
CEO Elon Musk said Optimus could eventually replace factory workers. Many experts say useful, general-purpose robots are decades away from reality.
AI Day, which Musk said was primarily about hiring employees, also showed features related to driver assistance software and more. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, despite its name, is a Level 2 driver assistance system.
Electric vehicle delivery
On Saturday or Sunday, the EV giant will likely launch Production and delivery data for the third quarter. Tesla shipments will easily set a record, but there are concerns about Chinese demand.
Lee Otto (LI) Early Saturday local time, it reported deliveries in September that were much better than expectations that were recently lowered. Teammate rivals Tesla New (NIO), And the Xpeng (XPEV) will report deliveries in September on Saturday as well.
Electric car and battery giant BYD (BYDDFIt will release sales in the next few days as well. BYD and Nio are two Leading China’s EV Push to Europe. This is just part of BYD’s massive international expansion.
Shares of Nio, BYD, Li Auto and Xpeng are struggling. Tesla stock looks better, but it hit resistance at the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Along with Tesla shares, Arista Networks (Network), Energy Enphase (ENPH), on semiconductors (on me) And the Centennial collectibles (CELH) Everyone owns Lines of relative force At or near the highs, but with stocks trading below the 50-day lines. But there is a positive side to this technical flaw.
The video included in the article discusses the bear market movement in depth, with Arista Networks also analyzing, Wolfspeed (wolf) and Tesla stock.
Dow jones futures contracts today
Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.
stock market last week
Major indices attempted to bounce back at various points last week, but eventually fell aggressively during the week, at bear market lows.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.9% last week stock market trading. The S&P 500 fell 2.9%. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 2.7%. Small-cap Russell 2000 slipped 1.4%. For the month of September, the Dow Jones lost 8.8%, the S&P 9.3%, the Nasdaq 10.5%, and the Russell 2000 10.1%.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 11 basis points last week to 3.81%. The yield slipped after hitting 4% early Wednesday morning, but bounced back from Friday’s lows. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen for nine consecutive weeks.
US crude oil futures rose 1% to $79.49 a barrel last week, even with Friday’s loss of 2.1%.
between the Best ETFsThe Innovator IBD 50 ETF (fifty) rose 1.45% last week, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (fit) decreased 1.3%. iShares Expanded Technology and Software Fund (ETF)IGV) decreased by 0.7%. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor Corporation (SMH) decreased by 3.8%.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETFs (XME) 2.2% last week. Global Infrastructure Development Fund X US (cradle) decreased by 0.9%. US Global Gates Foundation (ETF)Planes) down 2.9%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) waiver of 1.2%. SPDR Specific Energy Fund (SPDR ETF)XLE) rose 2.2% while the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) decreased 2.2%. SPDR Healthcare Sector Selection Fund (XLV) waiver 1.3%.
Shares reflect more speculative stories, the ARK Innovation ETF (see you) fell 0.3% last week, to close near weekly lows. ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) 2.2%. TSLA stock continues to lead across ETFs on Ark Invest. Cathie Wood’s Ark also owns some shares of BYD.
China sales EV
Li Auto announced the delivery of 11531 in September. Li Auto recently warned, noting that deliveries in September will be around 10,500.
In its first full month, deliveries of the L9 hybrid SUV jumped to 10,123. The soon-to-be approached Li One made up the rest. Delivery of the L8, the L9 mini, will begin in November. On September 30, Li Auto also began presale for another hybrid SUV, the L7.
Nio now has three new electric cars released in 2022, the luxury ET7, the ES7 SUV and the ET5 sedan. The ET5, the Model 3 competitor, just started delivering on September 30th. With new models and expansion in Europe, Nio expects record delivery in every month of the fourth quarter.
Xpeng struggles a bit with a less-than-modern lineup. Delivery of the G9 SUV will begin in the fourth quarter.
BYD is likely to report another month of record sales, with Q3 deliveries well above 500,000. This will increase its lead over Tesla, even though BYD’s sales are roughly split between all-electric “BEVs” and plug-in hybrids. BYD has entered Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and India in the past several weeks, beginning deliveries in Europe and several new Asian countries in the next few months. The automaker also continues to add new models, with deliveries of the Model 3 competitor Seal beginning in late August.
China Stock EV
Nio stock fell 10.6% last week to 15.77, hitting a four-month low after hitting resistance at the 200-day line on September 30. Shares of LI, a big winner from early May to late June, are also four months down, down 8% last week. XPEV stock lost 12.8% last week to new highs.
BYD stock has struggled since Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway (BRKBShe sold a piece of her old holdings. BYDDF stock is down 6.25% in the past week, hitting a six-month low.
After an AI Friday that may or may not have big news, Tesla will likely release its third-quarter delivery numbers over the weekend. Analysts expect to see approximately 355,000-365,000 vehicles. It would easily be a record and big gain from Q2 which has been hit by the shutdown.
But it’s a relatively modest increase from the end of 2021, given that Tesla added two new plants in Berlin and Austin and increased production capacity at its huge facility in Shanghai.
There are signs that Chinese demand is weak, or at least not keeping pace with demand for the newly expanded Shanghai factory. Tesla will likely lower Chinese car prices somewhat in October. Keep in mind that production in the fourth quarter should be much higher than it was in the third, especially for the broader Eurasian market, so demand should increase as well.
The electric car market in China is incredibly competitive, and it is growing even more.
Tesla stock hit resistance at the 50-day line on Wednesday, retreating to undermine its recent lows on Friday. Shares fell 3.7 percent to 265.25 for the week. TSLA stock bottom base now has double bottom patternwith 313.90 buy points.
stock to watch
ANET stock operates on a long-term consolidation basis, with probability of 132.97 buy point. There is an entry in the trend line currently just above the 50-day and 200-day lines, but it is now hitting resistance at the 21-day moving average. However, Arista stock rose 2.7% to 112.89 during the week. The RS line is at a record level.
ENPH stock fell 0.7% to 277.47 last week, is trading around the rapidly rising 50-day line, and closed below it on Friday. Arguably the solar leader could have an entry from a decisive move above the 50-day and 21-day lines, although a longer pause would be beneficial.
CELH stock broke heavily below the 50-day line on September 22nd. The ongoing recovery has been weak in terms of price and volume, but the energy drink maker is up 2.4% this week. The decisive move above the 50-day line is likely to coincide with a downward sloping trendline, providing an early entry into a new emerging consolidation.
ON stock also decisively breached 50 days on September 22nd, and hasn’t bounced much since then, dropping 1.55% last week. The EV-focused chipmaker could have an early entry by reclaiming the 50-day line and the trendline.
All of these stocks, including Tesla, need to cross 50-day streaks. But this is actually a positive thing in the current bear market. If Onsemi stock and these other companies are to make this fee above key resistance, it is likely that the market as a whole will need to show more strength.
There are a few executable stocks now, like Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), but that’s without any visible signs of a market bottom.
stock market analysis
The bear market hasn’t gone as low as it has in the past two weeks, but the major indices are back in force again, with a lot of declines happening on Friday. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes broke below their June lows, only to happen again on Friday. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have yet to cut their bear market lows, but they are getting close. The Nasdaq 100 fell from its June lows on Friday, with apple (AAPL) and Tesla stocks are among the many big drawdowns.
The bulls attempted a fight several times during the week, but the bouncing balls quickly fizzled out. Wednesday’s strong gains were quickly erased in the following session.
The Nasdaq tried to bounce back on Friday, up about 1.4% at session highs, before reversing lower. It is no coincidence that it faltered on Friday as the 10-year Treasury yield erased early losses and reversed the upside.
None of the major indicators touched the 10-day moving averages last week, let alone surpassed the more important levels. It’s hard to see the market making a serious recovery with Treasury yields heading higher. Yields are likely to go higher as long as the Fed raises rates aggressively.
In addition to a hawkish Fed, rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, investors should watch out for earnings disappointments amid a very challenging business environment. nike (NKE) And the Carnival Corp. (CCL) are only the most recent examples, with earnings season beginning in just two weeks.
To sum up, it looks like a bear market is in the process of starting a third decline. If so, the next logical support area could be the February 2020 high before Covid.
What are you doing now
The bear market is at its lowest level. All or nearly all investors should be in cash at the moment. If you want to nibble on some stocks that are flashing buy signals, keep positions small and be prepared to take quick profits.
Build your watch lists so that you are ready to jump into the big winners of the next real bull market. Focus on the leaders of relative strength. Many, such as Arista Networks, Enphase, and Tesla, may have fewer than 50 day streaks.
Read The Big Picture Every day to keep up with the trend of the market, stocks and leading sectors.
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