Let’s not waste time with a protracted preamble. It is Sunday’s NFL Championship. Within the NFC Match, the highest seed and NFC East champion Philadelphia Eagles She is going to host the second seed and NFC West champion San Francisco 49ers.
These two groups have been the 2 greatest groups within the convention for the overwhelming majority of the season, and so they’ll beat it for the correct to characterize the NFC on the Tremendous Bowl. Earlier than we break down the match, this is a have a look at methods to watch the match.
How do you watch
Date: Sunday 29 January | time: 3 p.m. ET
Location: Lincoln Monetary Discipline (Philadelphia)
tv: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (Attempt free of charge)
Prospect: Eagles -2.5, O/U 46 (Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Featured recreation | Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers
When the 49ers have the ball
Let’s begin by speaking about Brock Purdy, as a result of the best way he handles the Philadelphia rush may very well be the turning level on this recreation.
Earlier than final week’s recreation vs CowboysPurdy has fallen again to go 177 occasions since taking up the function of Jimmy Garoppolo once more in Week 13. He has accomplished 110 of 161 passes (68.3%) for 1,308 yards (8.12 per try), 13 touchdowns and solely three interceptions. He was sacked 11 occasions, and confronted stress at in regards to the common charge within the league (32.8% vs. 32.6%). The Dallas rush was capable of get Purdy extra repeatedly final week (48.5% stress charge, per Tru Media), and although Purdy was solely sacked twice and never picked off (though he did have a possible dropped interception), his effectivity took a success. (7.38 yards per try).
Through the common season, the Cowboys have been the perfect workforce within the league at getting pressured (43.3% of opponent working again), however the Eagles have been simply behind them in second place (38.4%). And the Eagles have been barely higher at changing pressures into sacks: 11.2% of Philly pressures resulted in quarterback takedowns (first within the NFL), in comparison with 8.9% of Dallas pressures (second). This distinction may very well be extremely significant on this match.
The Eagles can throw extra our bodies on their go rush than the Cowboys can. Jonathan Gannon will spin by means of Hasson Reddick, Josh Candy, Brandon Graham, and Robert Quinn on the sting, whereas bringing in (principally) Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave within the center. San Francisco has elite left deal with in Trent Williams on the left facet of the road, however Mike McClinchey might be susceptible on the correct, and guards Aaron Banks and Spencer Burford are higher at blocking runs than defending passes.
After all, Kyle Shanahan might be the premier offensive planner within the league proper now, and can undoubtedly create benefits for Purdy. Shanahan has loads of instruments at his disposal to create extensive throwing passes: Solely 9.4% of Purdy’s passes have been thrown in a decent window this season, based on NFL.com’s Subsequent Gen Stats, good for the second lowest charge within the NFL. These extensive passes usually give the likes of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey loads of room to run the ball, which is why Purdy ranks third within the NFL behind solely Garoppolo and Patrick Mahomes in yards after catches. (6.45).
Shanahan strikes Samuel and Aiyuk across the formation so he would not frequently subdue them to both Darius Slay or James Bradberry on the surface, however the anticipated return of Eagles slot nook Avonte Maddox softens that technique a bit. Philadelphia ranks twenty seventh in success charge in opposition to throws to the opening when Maddox is out this season, based on Tru Media, and first when Maddox is within the discipline. Bringing him again into the fold would make all of the distinction.
We all know San Francisco’s offense is designed to assault the center of the sphere, and Shanahan, Purdy & Co. will doubtless attempt to make the most of Philadelphia gamers. (Kittle must be fairly particular right here.) A lot of the midfield passing recreation is dependent upon the play offense, although, and Philly has been first within the EPA for each opponent working again for go performs this season. The Rivals accomplished simply 59.7% of their passes for a mean of 6.56 yards per try, whereas additionally throwing six touchdowns in opposition to 5 interceptions. The 49ers’ passing offense may be very completely different from the league’s normal offense, however there may be cause to consider that Philly is best geared up than most opponents to deal with it.
Due to all of those components, the Niners will doubtless attempt to battle this battle within the working recreation. Philadelphia has had a significantly better passing landing (a primary in DVOA for out of doors soccer) than the twenty first spherical this season, although the Eagles have fared higher in that division after they managed to make use of at the very least one off Jordan Davis and/or Linval Joseph. The San Francisco rush checks groups with selection and misdirection. He’s now not out of the zone after the outer zone after the outer zone. The 49ers will run all kinds of schemes now, giving the ball to a number of various gamers. They may drive opponents to declare their intentions based mostly on the place Samuel, McCaffrey, Awok, or Kyle Goshek line up, after which use these intentions in opposition to them.
The Philadelphia protection is not fairly as quick because the Dallas unit that San Francisco battled in opposition to final week (there are only a few gamers quicker than Micah Parsons, in spite of everything), so the Eagles could also be extra prone to ambient influences. They didn’t see a lot success within the divisional spherical. The Niners will use both McCaffrey, Samuel, or Elijah Mitchell (if he performs) on these punts, and every can harm the protection in numerous methods.
When the Eagles have the ball
One of the best factor about Philadelphia’s offense this season is that it has proven a formidable means to fluctuate in an effort to assault the opposition’s particular weaknesses. Unhealthy in opposition to escape? The Eagles would hit the rock all day, as they did dashing for over 250 yards in two completely different video games in opposition to the Giants, and an unbelievable 363 yards in opposition to Packers. Weak in entrance of the go? They will gentle you within the air, like after they solely had 19 dashing again makes an attempt in opposition to Jalen Hurts’ 39 passes in opposition to titansand burned them for 380 yards and three scores.
The 49ers protection is nice in virtually each method. The Niners completed the common season second in DVOA dashing protection, and fifth in opposition to go protection. They have been first within the EPA per dip and first within the EPA on the dashing try. They generated above-average pressures and sacks, rating third within the league in yards allowed earlier than a name per rush and first in yards after a name. They not often allowed explosive passes or passes, and have been arguably the perfect deal with workforce within the NFL. They’re extremely effectively educated, have a couple of absolute freaks who can damage any opponent’s recreation plan in Nick Bosa, Eric Armistead, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.
So, the place do vultures assault? For me, it is deep within the discipline. The 49ers have been first within the DVOA in opposition to brief passes, however solely twenty fourth in opposition to deep passes. The showdown between AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, Charvarius Ward and Decommore Lenoir is taken into account probably the most vital on this side of the showdown. When throwing for at the very least 20 yards downfield, Hurts was 22 of 55 for 823 yards, 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions through the common season. Solely two corners have allowed extra completions on these throws this season than Lenoir, who yielded seven completions on 13 makes an attempt, for 231 yards and a landing.
The issue with attacking on this method is that the 49ers design their protection to get these throws out of the best way. They play a whole lot of excessive protection: They have been one in all solely 5 groups to play at the very least 125 catches of each Cowl-2 and Cowl-4 through the common season. They may typically line up from their cornerbacks on the line of scrimmage, however cowl a deep quarter of the sphere. They do not need groups that go deep, and for probably the most half, groups do not. Solely 9.8% of an opponent’s go makes an attempt traveled at the very least 20 yards within the air, the tenth lowest charge within the league. The place openings can be found, opponents have been capable of take benefit typically.
One of many best steps the Eagles have taken as an offense this yr has been their means to assault in the midst of the sphere. The Hurts not often threw there final season, however the addition of AJ Brown and opening Dallas Goedert means they’ve labored there greater than as soon as this season. However nobody is best at slicing out the center than the Niners, as a result of nobody else has Warner and Greenlaw. Because of this the strategy of assault is from the surface. Once more, meaning going Lenoir and (to a lesser extent) Ward with passes down the sphere.
The primary recreation of the whole weekend, although, might be one in all arguably the perfect line of defense within the NFL in opposition to the perfect line of defense. Nick Bosa, Samson Ipokam, Charles Omeniho and Jordan Willis vs. Jordan Mailata and Lynn Johnson. Arik Armistead, Javon Kinlaw, Kevin Givens, and Ty McGill vs. Landon Dickerson, Jason Kelsey, and Isaac Somalo. Philadelphia leaves its interventions on an island Extra usually than any workforce within the NFL, which implies there might be probabilities for Bosa to get across the nook and get to Hurts…if he can catch him, that’s.