I made an update at the end of the season on my Top 100 Potential List, which you can see right now The Commission. With the season over, these rankings have been frozen in the “2022 Update” section of The Board, and aside from my exit from some lost rookie alumni from this season, there won’t be more changes until the leads start rolling out this season. As always, the arbitrary endpoint of the Top 100 doesn’t make sense – the class of players who are as good as the top 100 odds in baseball extends far beyond that – so this is a rank order of the top 109 odds in baseball in this time. This group will likely expand to nearly 120 players during our off-season assessments.
What might change now that the minor league season is over? We still have five weeks of the Arizona Fall League, the coaches’ end, and all winter ball in Mexico, the Dominican Republic and Venezuela. Plus, whatever information and Scout/industry opinions are making their way into my ears and mind is a little late, which is especially important for prospects who have been on DSL this year and instructable in Florida.
This update was made with a focus on top-tier players, those who are on the edge of the major leagues and could play a role in 2023. I used a light touch on the Fall League’s top 100 players (you can see the potential clients playing there on Seasonal tab from the board) because I will be personally assessing that group for the next several weeks, and that includes players who have had good seasons (like Jordan Lawlar) and men who have rough (like Luis Matos). The fall league is stacked up, I hope to see you there.
Again, the top 100 is over here In case you want to refer back to it as I talk you through the changes. Let’s start at the top, as there has been some reshuffle of the names that occupied the first few spots. The most notable change is for the righty لما Marlins Yuri Perez. Perez has been my best presentation prospect since the middle of the year, but now I’ve bumped his FV grade into a class of his own. His size, his stuff, his refinement, and his athletic life are all exceptional, and this combination of factors puts him in his stratosphere. I thought about making it the best overall possibility for this reason before the scouts I was talking to in the backcourts during the instruction took me out of having a pitcher in the lead. If I had to compare it to someoneit will be from CC Sabathia, which had an amazing feel and feel for its size, a similarly massive pedal down the hill, and a similar lever stroke. Of course, Eury is right-handed, fluffer than CC was, and doesn’t have an incredible change of pace as Sabathia has become. It’s not a full profile streaming fixture (similarities are limited to size, sports and mechanics), I’m just trying to convey that Perez is fundamentally different from every other possibility on the planet.
On the side of the center player, Jackson Chorio And the To de la Cruz Enter the 60 FV level although there are fundamental concerns regarding swing and failure. De La Cruz will be on the 40-man roster starting next year and he’s very close to the major leagues, and I’m more confident now than I was a year ago that he’ll stay for awhile. He has room to hit a group and remain a short star due to the amount of playable power.
Even while performing from a surface-level statistical standpoint, Chorio has had among the worst contact rates in the area in minor league baseball for quite some time. In 62 games played in Low-A, only nine have been played in ballparks with park factors below 115 accordingly. Matt Eddy’s research on minor league garden factors. The Milwaukee Low-A ballpark has a home garden factor of 115 and a home garden factor of 124 (!), and aside from the nine games I mentioned, Chorio played all of his road games in the parks that were at least Friendly to attack like his garden. He cut .324/.373/.600 in Low-A despite being in the lowest 10% of the area’s minor league call rate during that time.
The thing Chorio should remember, however, is that he is only 18 years old and has quickly grown to the speed of an elite racket. His in-area connection rate improved throughout the season even with his promotion, and he finished the year with an in-area connection mark of 76%. The analysts I spoke to about this are divided on whether or not they are concerned about Chourio’s batting skills. I think there is some risk here, but this player has a chance of being 70 FV, so even when I risk FV scores, he should be at 60 FV.
Andrew Pinter It also goes to layer 60 FV. He’s climbed all the way from Low-A to Double-A this season, and in the end, he’s been showing advanced use of broken ball (mixing sliders and curved ball shapes in both the zone for hits and in and out for blades) and he’s been working with an average random change , which was not there earlier in the year.
There were a few other changes to upgrade the menu up and down. D-appearing pitcher Brandon Pfadat Moves to 55 FV category. He’s one of the few top-level prospects in baseball who could miss bats consistently with three of his shows. right rays Bradley’s crown It goes to that level as well. I made a mistake Spencer Strider He wasn’t thinking that his Fastball quality would help raise his slider performance. I wouldn’t make that mistake with Bradley, whose passer has a whiff rate of 40% this season even though he’s barely average visually. His Fastball has all kinds of “round” spices that force hitters to try and trick them into catching up and many of them end up pulling out of the slider, which Bradley constantly orders along with his gauntlet.
The fall rider I really felt compelled to move was Padres Shortstop Jackson Merrill. Merrill’s feeling of hitting foundation hard has now been lifted as his body begins to mature, and he has the connection/strength combination to be a star quarterback. We’re talking about a few teen downtimes with a 90% contact rate in the region and a 44% hit rate hard per season. Even within a reasonable distance of the major leagues, he’s in the top 20 potential genres at this point.
If you go back to the list again, know that the combination that kicks off the Rockies outfield the probability Zack Fin By prospect Yankees Jason Dominguez He is most likely to move to the 55 FV class during the holiday season as the ceilings for these players are re-evaluated; Many of them play in the Fall League. You could argue that this high-ceilinged set extends the potential of erecting tigers Jackson Joby. Hitters in front of Jobe – Cubs Shortstop Christian HernandezRed Sox defensive player Miguel Blissand rice Junior Caminero – They are most likely to do next year what Chorio did this year. Both Hernandez and Bleis have question marks from bat to ball (Hernandez due to swing trajectory, Bleis due to approach), but both have elite bat speed and massive physical drop. Caminero is less of a visual blast from an instrument standpoint, but his outreach (and the consistency with which he hits the ball hard) is great for a player his age.
One of the philosophical questions to be answered is how shift bans should affect the way we think about evaluating these attackers. This mostly applies to prospects assisted transformation or empowerment transformation such as Michael BushAnd the Jonathan ArandaAnd the Spencer SteyerAnd the Miguel VargasAnd the Jordan Westberg, and other marginal or below average defenders who have good bats. We haven’t really moved any of that group because I’m not yet sure how to answer that question, although I think it would be a special punishment for players who will have to go from base two due to a lack of scope.
Conversely, players with the defensive ability in the middle lining probably deserve a boost. I feel confident enough that this is true because I switched to Orioles Shortstop Joseph Ortizbrewers shortstop Bryce Taurangand Royals shortstop Michael Garcia In the 50 FV class because they are all at least qualified in a Shortstop (Garcia is easily an over-defender) and have enough contact/ability on the base to play an everyday role. For those of you who care about this list for their fantasy team purposes, you probably still want to just care about bats first or just bats.
Finally, let me talk about Miguel Vargas specifically, because questions about him tend to find their way into my conversations and inbox: I like him, I don’t think he’s a star, and he’s on the 45/50 FV line for me. third rule It’s a very difficult pose to customize at the moment because our current group of hot corner occupants are pretty good, especially in the top position. Most of the debate about Vargas being a top 25 prospect is being made on paper, but some of that is distorted by the offensive environment of the parks/leagues he’s played in as a prospect, including this year’s PCL. He’s been a junior hitter at the level as a junior player, but he’s not particularly dropable or visually explosive from an eyeball reconnaissance standpoint, so I’m less inclined to do a skillful age-based drop here. When you delve into his basic data, his overall stats are close to average in third base (his batting skills are a plus, the power component is more vanilla), but his defense pulls off his overall profile. If you shoot him in left field, he’ll be comfortably shy of what the average average out there is in most aspects of insult.
Again, I love him and consider him an up-and-coming player, but I don’t think he’s a top 10 player in 3B/LF/1B or anything like that. I realize I’m on an island in this respect, at least in the public space, and that’s okay. I just want my readers to know that I’m constantly reevaluating this guy, as well as my way of doing it, and I think that’s where he falls in the continuum.